[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 July 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/2F    0008UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 135/89

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jul             15 Jul             16 Jul
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             140/94
COMMENT: The solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. 
The region 30 remains possible to produce isolated flare. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2221 2211
      Darwin               6   2222 2212
      Townsville           5   2221 2201
      Learmonth            4   2221 1201
      Canberra             6   2211 2311
      Hobart               4   1211 2200
      Casey(Ant)           8   3322 2210
      Davis(Ant)          11   243- 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 JUL : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            64   (Active)
      Hobart              58   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             20   3335 5432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
13 Jul    85

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jul    85    about 15% below predicted monthly values 
15 Jul    90    about 10% below predicted monthly values 
16 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 537 km/sec  Density:   10.5 p/cc  Temp:   133000 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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