[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 June 02

Mon Jul 1 09:55:56 EST 2002

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun: 147/101

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jul             02 Jul             03 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on 30June. A long duration C-class 
flare was observed from 0915UT to 1625UT which peaked at 1257UT. 
This flare was associated with a partial halo CME observed on 
the south-eastern limb around 1118UT. This CME is not expected
to be geo-effective. Another C1.7 flare was observed around 
1949. The solar wind speed rmained at moderate level of 380km/s
(approx.) for most of the day and also showed a rapid rise 
from 340km/s to 400km/s around 2000UT. Bz kept fluctuating
between north and south but remained northwards for most 
of the time. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 30 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2333 2223
      Darwin               8   2322 2223
      Townsville           8   2322 1323
      Learmonth            9   2322 2323
      Canberra            11   2333 1322
      Hobart               8   1233 1312
      Casey(Ant)          10   2333 2222
      Davis(Ant)          12   2343 21-3

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 JUN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9   2112 3333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jul    10    Mostly quiet to unsettled. 
02 Jul     8    Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible. 
03 Jul     8    Mostly quiet. 
COMMENT: The geo-magnetic activity is expected to show a 
gradual decline in the second half of 1July UT day and 
on 2 July. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: The geo-magnetic effect of the partial halo CME 
observed on 27June is expected to subside by the second half 
of 1July UT day. The HF conditions are expected to remain 
normal after that. Minor degradations in HF conditions may 
be observed at high latitudes in the first half of 
1July UT day. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
30 Jun   107

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day with 
      periods of depressions upto 20%.

Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jul   105    Near predicted monthly values with periods of 
                depressions upto 5%. 
02 Jul   108    near predicted monthly values 
03 Jul   110    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The geo-magnetic effect of the partial halo 
CME observed on 27June is expected to subside by the second 
half of 1July UT day. MUFs in the southern Australian regions 
may show minor depressions until then. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 349 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    69600 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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