[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    2005UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan: 240/189

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jan             28 Jan             29 Jan
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   240/189            245/195            250/200
COMMENT:M class flaring expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   3332 2223
      Darwin               7   3222 1122
      Learmonth            7   3222 1122
      Canberra             9   3332 1123
      Hobart               9   3332 1122
      Casey(Ant)          18   4--4 3323
      Davis(Ant)          19   44-- 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 JAN : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   1011 3342     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jan    11    Unsettled 
28 Jan     7    Quiet 
29 Jan     7    Quiet 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jan      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Improved HF conditions expected today after yesterdays 
mild degradation at mid to high latitudes. 10MeV Proton flux 
remain very mildly elevated over past 24 hours, some increased absorption 
may be experienced at polar regions. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
26 Jan   131

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to Near predicted monthly values 
      during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jan   170    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
28 Jan   170    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
29 Jan   170    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT:Yesterdays MUFs were down from recent enhanced
levels to near monthly values. A return to enhanced
conditions is expected.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 346 km/sec  Density:    8.8 p/cc  Temp:    45000 K  Bz:   6 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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