[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 225/175

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jan             23 Jan             24 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   230/180            235/185            235/185

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   4333 3233
      Darwin               8   3222 2223
      Learmonth           11   4223 2223
      Canberra            12   3333 2233
      Hobart              12   3333 2233
      Casey(Ant)          16   4--- 3233
      Davis(Ant)          22   44-- 4333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 JAN : 
      Darwin              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            87   (Minor storm)
      Hobart             132   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   3212 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
21 Jan   142

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jan   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
23 Jan   140    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
24 Jan   140    15-20% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 477 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:   169000 K  Bz:   5 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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