[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    1005UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 214/165

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jan             21 Jan             22 Jan
Activity     Low                Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   220/170            225/175            230/180

A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0659UT on 19 Jan. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 19 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   1334 3434
      Darwin              15   1323 3444
      Learmonth           19   0324 4533
      Canberra            12   0223 3434
      Hobart              14   0223 4434
      Casey(Ant)          20   3344 343-
      Davis(Ant)          17   2334 3433
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 JAN : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2103 2211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jan    11    Unsettled 
21 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 

A weak (15nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data 
at 1432UT on 19 Jan. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
19 Jan   145

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jan   125    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Jan   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
22 Jan   140    15-20% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 318 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    38600 K  Bz:  -3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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