[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 212/163

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jan             19 Jan             20 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   215/165            215/165            220/170

A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0543UT 
on 17 Jan. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 17 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2233 2322
      Darwin               8   2232 2312
      Learmonth            6   2122 2302
      Canberra             8   1233 2223
      Hobart               7   1232 2213
      Casey(Ant)          14   3-43 2322
      Davis(Ant)          18   ---3 3432
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 JAN : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1131 1211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jan     6    Quiet 
19 Jan     6    Quiet 
20 Jan     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : Began at 1450UT 15/01, Ended at 1015UT 16/01

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
17 Jan   168

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jan   160    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
19 Jan   150    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
20 Jan   150    15-20% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.9E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 371 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    68100 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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