[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan: 199/151

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jan             10 Jan             11 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            195/147            205/156
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field, Bz, fluctuated southward by 10nT 05-16UT. Solar wind speed 
shows an increasing trend over past 2 days. Some activity from 
behind the east limb (not geoeffective) with large CME visible 
in LASCO imagery 14-18UT. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 08 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   4443 2222
      Darwin              13   4342 2212
      Learmonth           11   4332 2212
      Canberra            13   4342 2211
      Hobart              13   4342 2211
      Casey(Ant)          23   55-3 2233
      Davis(Ant)          20   44-4 4223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 JAN : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   1103 2332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Jan    15    Unsettled to Active 
11 Jan    18    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 7 January and 
is current for interval 11-13 January. Mild geomagnetic activity 
over past 24 hours probably in association with southward IMF. 
A gradually increeasing geomagnetic activity expected over the 
forecast period due to coronal hole. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected at high latitudes next few 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
08 Jan   162

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jan   175    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
10 Jan   175    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
11 Jan   175    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed: 348 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:    65600 K  Bz:  -3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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