[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 February 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 192/144

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Feb             10 Feb             11 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            180/133            175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be at low level. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 08 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   3322 3222
      Darwin               9   3222 3223
      Learmonth           10   3222 3321
      Canberra             9   3222 3223
      Hobart              11   3323 3222
      Casey(Ant)          23   4-43 ----
      Davis(Ant)          21   34-- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 FEB : 
      Darwin              57   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           10   (Quiet)
      Canberra           170   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             147   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             14   2343 4233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
08 Feb   149

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Feb   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
10 Feb   140    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Feb   140    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 591 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   155000 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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