[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 December 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 21 09:14:56 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6.8/SF 1318UT probable lower European
M2.8/2N 19/2153UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 197/149
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 195/147 195/147 185/138
COMMENT: A proton enehancement was observed following the M2.8
flare/CME late yesterday. 10MeV proton flux peaked at 4 proton
flux units around 0215UT. An Earth directed mass ejection confirmed
in LASCO C3 imagery. Todays M6.8 flare has a relatively impulsive xray
profile, and was from solar region 226. This flare was reported
with a Type II signature. A shock arrival window based on speed
and location is 06-16UT on 23 Dec. As this event had an impulsive
profile effects are expected to be less than earlier M2.8 event
from region 223/225. Solar wind speed was at around 540km/sec
for much of the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field fluctuated southward, and is currently around
12nT south, a condition that increases the geoeffectiveness of
the solar wind. Further M class flares remain expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 20 Dec : A K
Australian Region 11 3322 3232
Darwin 10 3222 3233
Townsville 9 2222 3232
Learmonth 15 33-- ----
Canberra 10 3322 2233
Hobart 16 -322 235-
Casey(Ant) 21 4-43 4331
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 DEC :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 21 3345 4442
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Dec 18 Unsettled to Active
22 Dec 50 Minor storm, major storm periods possible local night.
23 Dec 25 Active to minor storm.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 20 December
and is current for interval 21-22 December. Coronal hole induced
geomagnetic activity observed over past 24 hours. Further actviity
expected first half of today particular if southward interplanetary
magnetic field persists. Minor storm (Major storm periods) expected
22 Dec due to recent mass ejection associated with M2.7 flare.
Activity could be extended to 23rd due to M6.8 event, effects
expected to be less due to relatively impulsive nature of flare.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal Fair Fair
22 Dec Normal Fair-poor Fair-poor
23 Dec Normal Poor-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions observed at mid to high latitudes
overnight. Further degradation expected today then improving.
A stronger degradation is likely on 22-23 Dec due to recent mass
ejection activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Dec 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Dec 80 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
22 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
23 Dec 50 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Isolated shortwave fadeout activity expected. Depressed
MUFs expected southern region after local dawn today. Depressed/degraded
conditions are likely late 22-23 Dec following anticipated coronal
mass ejection geomagnetic activity..
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: B9.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 8.8 p/cc Temp: 118000 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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