[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 December 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 17 10:27:11 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.6 1115UT possible lower European
M2.1 2257UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 203/154
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 200/152 195/147
COMMENT: Solar region 225 (N17E32) produced the M2.6 event. A
Type II (428km/sec) and IV radio sweep was reported at 1136UT.
This radio signature implies a mass ejection. It is unclear whether
or not the radio data was associated with the M2 or a south-west
directed, apparent backside mass ejection, visible in LASCO imagery
around the same time. There appeared to be little ejecta activity
around the north east, where this region is located. So either
the M2.6 and radio sweep information are associated and the mass
ejection did not escape the Sun, or the M2.6 and radio sweep
data are disconnected events. Either way it appears that a shock
is not to be expected. (A blind shock arrival prediction based
on radio data is 09-17UT on 19 Dec). No radio sweep was
observed with the M2.1 event near 23UT. Further M class events probable.
Solar wind speed is declining and now moderately elevated at
450km/sec. Bz has remained mildly northward over the UT day.
A coronal hole is visible now just west of the solar central
meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 2122 2213
Darwin 5 2122 2213
Townsville 4 1121 2113
Learmonth 5 2122 2113
Canberra 5 2221 2112
Hobart 6 2232 1112
Casey(Ant) 11 ---- 331-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 DEC :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 9 3222 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Dec 25 Active to minor storm
19 Dec 20 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 44 was issued on 15 December
and is current for interval 18-19 December. A coronal hole is
expected to cause active to minor storm conditions on 18 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
19 Dec Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected mid to high latitudes 18
Dec due to coronal hole induced activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Dec 145
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15-20% during local day,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Dec 130 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Dec 80 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
19 Dec 80 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 77 was issued on 15 December
and is current for interval 18-19 December. Isolated shortwave
fadeout activity expected. Degraded conditions expected around
18 Dec due to anticapated coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 504 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 169000 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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