[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 December 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 154/109


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Dec             10 Dec             11 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            150/105            150/105
COMMENT: There is a minor probability of M-cass flares from regions 
212 and 214. There are no other regions of significant magnetic 
complexity on the visible solar disk at present. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 08 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3322 3323
      Darwin              11   3322 3324
      Townsville           9   2322 2322
      Learmonth           11   3312 3323
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              12   2431 3322
      Casey(Ant)          20   ---- 442-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 DEC : 
      Townsville          14   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             155   (Brief severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             16   3334 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active 
10 Dec    12    Unsettled 
11 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has remained at elevated levels. Bz 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field has been mostly 
northward over the UT day, which has moderated the effect of 
the present coronal hole wind stream. Coronal hole wind stream 
effects are expected to gradually decline over the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Dec      Fair-normal    Poor-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Isolated depressions possible at high latitudes in association 
with periods of geomagnetic disturbance. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Dec    88

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day, 
      with isolated localised depressions.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Dec   105    near predicted monthly values 
10 Dec   115    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
11 Dec   115    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Ocasionally strong sporadic E conditions observed at 
mid to high latitudes. High speed coronal hole wind stream effects 
are expected to gradually decrease over the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 568 km/sec  Density:   11.3 p/cc  Temp:   216000 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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