[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 December 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/2N 04/2249UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 149/104


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Dec             07 Dec             08 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            170/124            175/129
COMMENT: There is a chance of isolated M-class flare activity 
from regions 208 and 213. A previously active region (191) is 
due to return to the front-side solar disc today. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2222 2222
      Darwin               7   2222 2223
      Townsville           6   2222 1223
      Learmonth            6   2122 2223
      Canberra             7   222- ----
      Hobart               5   2222 2111
      Casey(Ant)           9   ---3 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 DEC : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             12   2233 3432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active 
08 Dec    20    active 
COMMENT: The interplanetary magnetic field has persisted southward, 
but trending towards neutral with decreasing amplitude fluctuations 
throughout the UT day. Solar wind speed has continued to decline. 
There is the possibility of unsettled to active conditions within 
the next few days as an extensive coronal hole moves into geoeffictive 
solar longitude. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Widespread and persistent spread F and sporadic E conditions 
observed at high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Dec   122

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
5 to 10% above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Dec   120    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 5 to 
                15%. 
07 Dec   120    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 5 to
		15%.
08 Dec   100    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly near predicted to slightly 
enhanced today. Isolated depressions possible later at high latitudes 
in association with coronal hole induced geomagnetic disturbance. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 443 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    95700 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060