[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 August 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    0605UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug: 210/161


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Aug             17 Aug             18 Aug
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   215/165            215/165            220/170
COMMENT: Region 69 (S07E24) increased in size and magnetic complexity, 
but has yet to produce a major flare. ACE EPAM precursor data 
has peaked suggesting the shock from the recent M1.8/CME should 
be here. A small discontinuity was observed in the ACE data around 
1830UT on 15 Aug, but a data gap that immediately followed made 
interpretation difficult. It is possible that this weak signature 
was the shock. However, a shock arrival may still be possible 
early today, as a much larger signature was expected. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
15/0540UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 44 is due for return to 
the south-east limb around 17 Aug. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 15 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   2233 3345
      Darwin              15   3-33 3334
      Townsville          13   2223 3344
      Learmonth           15   3233 3345
      Canberra            15   2233 4244
      Hobart              12   1233 3244
      Casey(Ant)          14   3-43 223-
      Davis(Ant)          24   -4-4 34-6
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15   3333 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Aug    18    active 
17 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active 
18 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 15 August and 
is current for interval 15-17 August. Magnetic forecast reduced 
due to amiguity regarding shock arrival. A sudden impulse is 
possible early today. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : Began at 1245UT 14/08, Ended at 1350UT 14/08
 and, Began at 1545UT 14/08, Ended at 1825UT 14/08
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degrdaded HF conditions possible at high latitudes on 
16 Aug. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Aug   137

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 85% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
      Some spread and absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Aug   120    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
17 Aug   120    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
18 Aug   120    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Increasing chance of shortwave fadeouts on daylight 
HF circuits. Degraded conditions possible local night hours 16 
Aug, southern Aus/NZ region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.9E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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