[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 August 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 5 09:49:08 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6/-- 0955UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was high on 4 August. One M6 flare
was observed at 0954UT/4August. Several C-class flares were
also observed. Region 57 remains the most dominant region
on the disk. The solar wind speed has shown a gradual
increase from approximately 420 to 480 km/s over the whole
day and it seems to be a coronal hole effect. Bz remained
moderately southwards during early hours (until
approximately 0400UT) and caused a rise in geomagnetic
activity upto minor storm levels at places. Bz remained
predominantly northwards for nearly the rest of the day.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 30 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 5 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 04 Aug : A K
Australian Region 10 3432 1112
Darwin 9 3332 1223
Townsville 9 3332 1222
Learmonth 10 3432 0110
Canberra 7 2332 1111
Hobart 7 2332 1101
Casey(Ant) 13 4433 1122
Davis(Ant) 16 3543 1122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 AUG :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 20 5443 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Aug 12 Mostly unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.
06 Aug 12 Mostly unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.
07 Aug 12 Mostly unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.
COMMENT: The solar wind speed gradually increased from
approximately 420 to 480 km/s over the whole day. It
seems to be a coronal hole effect. The interplanetary
magnetic field remained moderately southwards during
the early hours of the day (until approximately 0400UT)
and casued a rise in geo-magnetic activity to active
levels ( and even upto minor storm levels for short
periods). The geo-magnetic activity is expected to
remain mostly at unsettled levels during the next three
days with possibility of isolated active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions may be observed
on high latitudes on 5-7 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Aug 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with periods
of minor depressions.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values for short
durations. Mildly depressed for relatively
long durations.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Aug 118 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Isolated
periods of minor depressions possible in Southern
Australian regions.
06 Aug 118 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Isolated
periods of minor depressions possible in Southern
Australian regions.
07 Aug 118 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Isolated
periods of minor depressions possible in Southern
Australian regions.
COMMENT: Periods of minor degradations may be observed
in the southern Australian regions during 5-7 August as
the geo-magnetic activity is expected to remain mostly
at unsettled level with the possibility of going upto
active levels at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 451 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 37100 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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