[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 April 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1F    0351UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 210/161

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Apr             16 Apr             17 Apr
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   210/161            205/156            205/156
COMMENT: Possible indistinct/weak shock signatures around 9 and 
12 UT. Bz mildly southward (5nT) 12-14UT. A possible very weak Type 
II radio sweep was associated with the M1 event (shock speed around 
650 km/sec), no signifcant CME was discernable in LASCO imagery.
Another (stronger) Type II was observed at 2235UT (shock speed around
400-600km/sec) associated with a C7 flare, no LASCO imagery yet available. 
A general increase in solar radio activity has been observed over past 
24 hours. M class flaring expected today. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 14 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3322 4311
      Townsville          16   3212 5422
      Learmonth           14   3212 5312
      Canberra            12   3312 4311
      Hobart              12   3312 4311
      Casey(Ant)          15   4422 32--
      Davis(Ant)          12   3333 3211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 APR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             14   3234 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Apr    12    Unsettled 
16 Apr     7    Quiet 
17 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mild CME induced activity observed overnight. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation observed at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
14 Apr   161

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Apr   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
16 Apr   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
17 Apr   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on 14 April 
and is current for interval 14-16 April (SWFs) . Mild degradation 
observed local night hours. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 407 km/sec  Density:    7.6 p/cc  Temp:    38500 K  Bz:  -5 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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