[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG: ** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1F    1055UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 204/155

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Apr             02 Apr             03 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            195/147            190/143
COMMENT: Solar wind speed is currently elevated at 700km/sec 
due to coronal hole high speed stream. However, the north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field has continued 
to remain mildly northward. The solar region (SEC 9885) appears 
to be declining. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 31 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   3343 3333
      Townsville          15   3333 3333
      Learmonth           15   3333 3333
      Canberra            15   3333 3333
      Hobart              15   3333 3333
      Casey(Ant)          22   4454 2232
      Davis(Ant)          24   3454 33--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 MAR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          45   (Unsettled)
      Learmonth           63   (Active)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             17   2443 4332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
02 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Coronal hole expected to produce active periods for 
today. Effects of high holes speed stream reduced due to northward 
IMF. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions possible local night 
hours at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
31 Mar   162

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Apr   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
02 Apr   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
03 Apr   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 538 km/sec  Density:    8.0 p/cc  Temp:   299000 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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