[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 September 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    1716UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
 M2/--    1841UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep: 199/151

GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Sep             05 Sep             06 Sep
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            180/133            175/129

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 03 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2223 3234
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville           5   2111 2223
      Learmonth            9   2123 3233
      Canberra            10   3223 2234
      Hobart               9   2223 3224
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 SEP : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            60   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              7   1002 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active 
05 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
03 Sep   136

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Sep   120    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
05 Sep   120    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
06 Sep   107    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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