[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 October 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    0159UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M3.9    1113UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 216/166

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Oct             31 Oct             01 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   210/161            205/156            200/152




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 29 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   2333 3334
      Darwin              12   2332 3334
      Learmonth           15   3333 3334
      Canberra            13   2333 3334
      Hobart              11   2333 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 OCT : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        34
           Planetary             41   2666 5443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Oct    12    Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods. 
31 Oct    10    Quiet to unsettled 
01 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Oct      Poor-normal    Poor-normal    Poor-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions were significantly degraded during the 
period 00-10UT following the impact of a CME early on 28 October. 
Depressions of 30-50% were observed at times for most latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
29 Oct   102

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30-50% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 20%.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Oct   130    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
31 Oct   150    Near predicted monthly values 
01 Nov   150    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions were significantly degraded during the 
period 00-10UT following the impact of a CME early on 28 October. 
Depressions of 30-50% were observed at times for most latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 463 km/sec  Density:    7.9 p/cc  Temp:   130000 K  Bz:  -7 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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