[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 October 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 10 09:15:41 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/2F 1113UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 176/130
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 170/124
COMMENT:
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A K
Australian Region 11 3223 3313
Darwin 12 3323 331-
Townsville - ---- ----
Learmonth 10 4222 3213
Canberra 11 3223 3322
Hobart 15 3--- ----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 OCT :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15 2333 4424
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
11 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
12 Oct 30 Active to Minor storm
COMMENT:
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Oct Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT:
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Oct 161
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Oct 130 near predicted monthly values
11 Oct 100 near predicted monthly values
12 Oct 100 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT:
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B8.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 56000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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