[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 October 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct: 192/144

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Oct             05 Oct             06 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            210/161            210/161


ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
03/0815UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: Unsettled to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 03 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      41   4355 6545
      Darwin              37   4355 5545
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth           40   3355 6545
      Canberra            31   4345 5444
      Hobart              54   4356 7-34
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 OCT : 
      Darwin              19   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              98   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        35
           Planetary             55                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        24
           Planetary             43   4555 4455     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Oct    17    active 
05 Oct    12    Unsettled 
06 Oct     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: CME related activity expected to gradually decline after 
03 Oct 
A weak (24nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data 
at 0844UT on 03 Oct. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 01 10 2001 0945UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Poor(PCA)
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
03 Oct   106

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Oct   120    Depressed 15% after local dawn then recovering. 
05 Oct   130    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Oct   140    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 54 was issued on 3 October 
and is current for interval 3-4 October. Northern region MUFs 
currently enhanced. Southern region MUFs south of Sydney, depressed 
15-30% after local this morning. Shortwave fadeouts likely on 
daylight HF circuits. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.6E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 478 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    68200 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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