[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 October 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M9/--    0515UT  probable   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct: 217/167

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Oct             03 Oct             04 Oct
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   210/161            205/156            205/156

COMMENT: A halo coronal mass ejection was observed with M9 flare. 
M9 was on far west limb (region 9628) and produced a proton event, 
which remains in progress. Region 9628 is due back around to 
the east limb on 15 Oct. A shock was observed in the solar wind 
(SOHO data) at around 2115UT, with solar wind speed jumping from 
500 to around 600 km/sec. The ACE detector was saturated by the 
proton event. Previously flaring region 9608 is due back to the 
south-east limb today. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 01 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      31   4355 5424
      Darwin              22   4344 4424
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth           31   5345 5424
      Canberra            27   3355 4434
      Hobart              29   3355 5422
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 OCT : 
      Darwin              16   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           10   (Quiet)
      Canberra            33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              75   (Active)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        35
           Planetary             40                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             17   4322 3444     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Oct    30    Active to Minor storm 
03 Oct    35    Active to Minor storm 
04 Oct    17    active 
COMMENT: Disturbed geomagnetic conditions expected during the 
forecast period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Fair           Fair-Poor      Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 01 10 2001 0945UT and 
is in progress.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Oct      Fair           Fair           Poor(PCA)
03 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
04 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected mid to high latitudes next 
two days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
01 Oct   125

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Oct   100    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
03 Oct    90    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
04 Oct   100    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 52 was issued on 30 September 
and is current for interval 30 September to 2 October. Northern 
region MUFs currently enhanced. Southern region MUFs south of 
Sydney, depressed 15-20% after local dawn this morning. Shortwave 
fadeouts likely on daylight HF circuits. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.8E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 524 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    66600 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060