[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 September 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    1141UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 236/186

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Oct             02 Oct             03 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   230/180            225/175            225/175

COMMENT:ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement 
event beginning 30/1045UT, which can be a precursor to increased 
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. 
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 1847UT on 
30 Sep. The interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated southward 
post-shock until 21UT, then returned nothward. Several solar 
regions remain M class flare capable, with chance of X class 
flaring. Some regions are showing signs of decay. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 30 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   3222 3354
      Darwin              13   3222 3343
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth           16   3222 3354
      Canberra            16   3222 3353
      Hobart              17   3332 3444
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 SEP : 
      Darwin              41   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           12   (Quiet)
      Canberra            85   (Minor storm)
      Hobart             130   (Severe storm)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             21   3334 3435     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Oct    20    Unsettled to active, chance of minor storm conditions. 
02 Oct    15    Initially active, then declining to unsettled levels. 
03 Oct    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Effects of recent shock expected to be reduced due to 
northward interplanetary magnetic field. 
A weak (18nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data 
at 1924UT on 30 Sep. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : Began at 1235UT 24/09, Ended at 1100UT 30/09
            and, Began at 1345UT 30/09, Ended at 1425UT 30/09
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degarded conditions expected mid to high latitudes today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
30 Sep   133

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Some absorption observed at beginning and end of UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Oct   100    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 
02 Oct   100    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 
03 Oct   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 52 was issued on 30 September 
and is current for interval 30 September to 2 October. SWFs probable. 
Mildly depressed and degraded conditons expected next two days. 
Depression may not be deep due to current enhanced MUFs, and 
northward IMF. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 619 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   225000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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