[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 November 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED**   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M5/1N    1036UT  possible   lower  European
 M1/SF    0149UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 216/166

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Nov             01 Dec             02 Dec
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   210/161            215/165            220/170




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2122 2012
      Darwin               3   2111 1013
      Learmonth            3   2111 1012
      Canberra             3   1121 1012
      Hobart               4   1122 2011
      Casey(Ant)           5   ---- 21--
      Davis(Ant)          11   3333 3112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 NOV : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1000 0221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Nov     6    Quiet 
01 Dec    25    Unsettled to active levels with possible minor 
                storm periods. 
02 Dec    15    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: A partial halo CME observed in association with an M6-flare 
at 1635UT on 28 November is expected to impact the Earth on 1 
December and produce mildly elevated levels of geomagnetic activity. 
This CME does not appear to be largely Earthward directed. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
01 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Mildly enhanced geomagnetic activity anticipated for 
1 December may produce slightly degraded HF conditions for that 
day. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
29 Nov   180

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Normal to enhanced at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Nov   170    near predicted monthly values 
01 Dec   120    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
02 Dec   160    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 77 was issued on 28 November 
and is current for interval 28-30 November (SWFs) . Mildly enhanced 
geomagnetic activity anticipated for 1 December may produce slightly 
degraded HF conditions for that day. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.1E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 418 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:    81700 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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