[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 May 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 159/113

GOES satellite data for 22 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 May             25 May             26 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            170/124            170/124

COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased from 300 to 450km/sec, over 
the UT day, as the earth entered a moderately evelavated speed 
coronal hole solar wind stream. Two solar regions show growth. 
If regions continue to develop, there is an increasing chance 
of M class flare activity. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2221 1212
      Darwin               7   2322 1222
      Townsville           3   1110 1211
      Learmonth            9   3322 2223
      Canberra             4   1221 1212
      Hobart               4   1221 1111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 MAY : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          64   (Active)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   2123 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 May    18    Unsettled to active 
25 May    12    Unsettled 
26 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 20 May and 
is current for interval 23-24 May. Active periods expected local 
night hours next 24 hours due to coronal hole effects. Outside 
chance of glancing blow from a recent CME. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 May      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF comms quality expected at high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
23 May   123

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
      SPread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 May   110    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
25 May   110    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
26 May   115    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Expected coronal hole induced activity may produce mild 
ionospheric depressions 24/25 May. 

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