[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 May 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May: 150/105

GOES satellite data for 20 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.5E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 May             23 May             24 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            160/114            165/119

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1111 1012
      Darwin               3   1212 1012
      Townsville           1   0101 0011
      Learmonth            5   1222 2112
      Canberra             2   0111 2002
      Hobart               2   1101 2102
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 MAY : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          64   (Active)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10   2332 3322     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 May     7    Quiet to unsettled 
23 May    28    Active to minor storm 
24 May    18    Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 20 May and 
is current for interval 23-24 May. Coronal hole induced activity 
is expected. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
23 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
24 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor     

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
21 May   111

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 May   115    Near predicted monthly values 
23 May   100    Near predicted monthly values 
24 May    80    about 15% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Expected coronal hole induced activity may produce ionospheric 
depressions 24 May. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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