[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 May 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 176/130

GOES satellite data for 03 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 May             06 May             07 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            165/119            160/114

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   1233 1111
      Darwin               7   2233 1110
      Townsville           7   1233 1111
      Learmonth            7   2233 1111
      Canberra             6   1233 1011
      Hobart               5   1223 1011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 MAY : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   1123 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 May    15    Unsettled to Active 
06 May    12    Unsettled 
07 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Possible slight increase in geomagnetic activity due 
to a coronal high solar wind stream. Recurrent pattern is strongest 
on 05 May. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
04 May   141

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 May   115    Near predicted monthly values 
06 May   115    Near predicted monthly values 
07 May   115    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions may be experienced for 
southern region Aus/NZ during local night hours 5 May. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060