[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 June 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JUNE 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/2N 28/2021UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun: 221/171

GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jun             20 Jun             21 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            195/147            195/147

A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0153UT 
on 18 Jun. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 18 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      20   2345 4323
      Darwin              20   3445 3223
      Townsville          14   1335 3202
      Learmonth           23   3445 4324
      Canberra            25   2346 4323
      Hobart              25   2346 4322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 JUN : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville          64   (Active)
      Learmonth           23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        27
           Planetary             29                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9   1122 4333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jun    12    Unsettled 
20 Jun     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Jun     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: A weak shock was detected in the ACE solar wind data 
18/0153UT. A prolonged period of negative interplanetary magnetic 
field helped produce active to minor storm levels. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
18 Jun   154

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June: 118

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jun   120    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Jun   125    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Jun   130    Near predicted monthly values 


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