[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 June 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JUNE 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 208/159

GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jun             18 Jun             19 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            205/156            210/161

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2221 0011
      Darwin               3   2221 0012
      Townsville           2   1120 0011
      Learmonth            8   3222 2222
      Canberra             2   1220 0000
      Hobart               2   1220 0000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 JUN : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville          64   (Active)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             12   3333 3323     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jun    18    Unsettled to active 
18 Jun    11    Unsettled 
19 Jun     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Moderately disturbed conditions expected during forecast 
period, isolated active periods may be experienced. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : Began at 1835UT 15/06, Ended at 1240UT 16/06
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
16 Jun   143

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 118

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jun   130    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Jun   130    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Jun   130    Near predicted monthly values 


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