[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 June 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JUNE 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun: 166/120

GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jun             14 Jun             15 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            155/109            155/109

COMMENT: Solar wind speed again continued to decline. A weak 
coronal mass ejection and type II radio sweep was reported with 
a C6 flare from region 9488 (S18W56) at 0719UT. Event data suggests 
minor shock arrival window 02-15UT on 15 June. Solar region 9463 
is due back today. This region produced no flares on its previous 
transist, however its was moderately sized and magnetically complex. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1111 0011
      Darwin               2   1111 0012
      Townsville           1   1100 0011
      Learmonth            6   1222 2223
      Canberra             1   0110 0010
      Hobart               1   1110 0011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 JUN : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville          64   (Active)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              38   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   3312 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jun     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Jun     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Recent CME and recurrence suggests mild increase in 
activity on 15 June. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
15 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation is possible on 15 June. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
12 Jun   118

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Some Spread F observed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 118

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jun   125    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Jun   125    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Jun   115    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected. A mild degradation in HF 
comms quality may be experienced local night hours southern 
region Aus/NZ on 15 June. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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