[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 June 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JUNE 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.4    0812UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.7    2300UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 154/109

GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jun             06 Jun             07 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            160/114            165/119




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2211 1211
      Darwin               5   2221 1212
      Townsville           2   2100 1102
      Learmonth            8   3222 2222
      Canberra             4   3200 1201
      Hobart               3   2200 1200
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 JUN : 
      Darwin              10   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Hobart              33   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   2232 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jun    10    Quiet to unsettled 
06 Jun    10    Quiet to unsettled 
07 Jun    15    Mostly quiet to unsettled with possible active 
                periods. 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity may increase slightly for May 7 
due to a geoeffectively positioned coronal hole. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
04 Jun   123

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 118

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jun   120    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Jun   120    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Jun   120    Near predicted monthly values 


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