[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 June 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JUNE 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*  ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 134/88

GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jun             04 Jun             05 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   137/91             140/94             145/99


ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
02/1025UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity
over next 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 02 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   4322 3323
      Darwin              15   4333 3323
      Townsville           9   3321 3223
      Learmonth           18   5323 3333
      Canberra            11   3322 3323
      Hobart              10   3322 3222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 JUN : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             23                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   1113 3334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jun    15    Mostly quiet to unsettled with possible active 
                periods. 
04 Jun    12    Quiet to unsettled 
05 Jun    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Active levels of geomagnetic activity are possible for 
3 June due to a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
02 Jun   142

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jun   115    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Jun   115    Near predicted monthly values 
05 Jun   115    Near predicted monthly values 


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060