[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 July 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JULY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul: 115/66

GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Jul             01 Aug             02 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: A type II radio sweep was reported at 2043UT on 30 July. 
Sweep was associated with a C6 xray event. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 30 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2111 1223
      Darwin               8   ---3 1223
      Townsville           1   1000 0122
      Learmonth            6   2222 2123
      Canberra             3   2110 0223
      Hobart               3   1110 0222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 JUL : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   1232 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Jul     6    Quiet 
01 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
02 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
30 Jul   102

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Jul   100    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
01 Aug   115    Near predicted monthly values 
02 Aug   115    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions again possible today after local dawn. 
Cause of mild regional depressions unknown. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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