[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 July 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JULY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.8    1006UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul: 142/96

GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jul             21 Jul             22 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             140/94




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   1223 2222
      Darwin               7   1223 2222
      Townsville           4   1112 1222
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             8   2113 322-
      Hobart               6   0113 3211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 JUL : 
      Darwin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11   2332 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Jul    10    Quiet to unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
19 Jul   103

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 
      enhanced greater than 20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jul   115    near predicted monthly values 
21 Jul   115    Near predicted monthly values 
22 Jul   115    Near predicted monthly values 


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