[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 July 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JULY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul: 130/84

GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jul             11 Jul             12 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             145/99
COMMENT: Isolated low level M class flare activity may become 
more likely over coming days if SEC region 9531 in the south-west 
continues to develop. In addition, old regions 9503 and 9506 
are due back over the next few days. These regions each produced 
an M class flare on previous roatation. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 09 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   3211 1122
      Darwin               7   3321 1121
      Townsville           3   3110 0012
      Learmonth            9   4222 2222
      Canberra             4   3210 0011
      Hobart               4   3210 002-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 JUL : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              22   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             16   2333 3344     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Jul     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Jul     9    Quiet to Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
09 Jul   130

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jul   120    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Jul   120    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Jul   120    Near predicted monthly values 


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