[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 January 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1B    0607UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan: 166/120

GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jan             28 Jan             29 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            165/119

COMMENT: M1 flare was associated with a Type II radio sweep, 
but was located on the far east o fthe solar disk. Shock speed 
around 500km/sec. No type IV (CME proxy) was observed after the 
type II. The north south component (Bz) of the interplanatary magnetic 
field (IMF) was southward 02-08UT. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 26 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       11   2242 3223
      Darwin               11   2242 3223
      Townsville           11   2242 3223
      Learmonth            12   3242 3223
      Canberra             14   2252 3223
      Hobart               15   2352 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 JAN : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1001 1222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jan     2    Quiet 
28 Jan     3    Quiet 
29 Jan     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: The isolated active period observed yesterday was probably 
in association with southward IMF around this time. Geomagnetic 
activity expected to continue at quiet levels. A disturbance 
is generally not expected from the Type II radio sweep event, 
due to eastward location and lack of following type IV sweep, 
but potential shock arrival window is estimated as second half 
of UT day on 29 Jan. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions observed yesterday 
at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
26 Jan   131

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      depressed 15% after dawn at some sites.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some spread F observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jan   100    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
28 Jan   120    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Jan   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly depressed conditions observed at some southern 
region sites after dawn this morning. Northern region MUFs near 
normal. Depression is not expected to persist. 

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