[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 January 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/2F    1447UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan:NA

GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jan             26 Jan             27 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            170/124            165/119

COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was southward 10-18UT. Solar wind speed and density mildly 
elevated. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 24 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       15   3214 3434
      Darwin               13   3213 3434
      Townsville           17   3214 4434
      Learmonth            17   3214 3444
      Canberra             18   3314 4434
      Hobart               18   3314 3443
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 JAN : 
      Darwin               22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             61   (Active)
      Hobart               59   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   1103 3343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Jan     7    Quiet 
27 Jan     2    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity expected to continue to decline 
following recent CME related activity. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Improved HF conditions expected for today. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
24 Jan   108

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some absorption and spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jan   120    near predicted monthly values 
26 Jan   130    near predicted monthly values 
27 Jan   130    near predicted monthly values 


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