[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 January 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 170/124

GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jan             05 Jan             06 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            165/119            165/119


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 03 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region        9   3322 3123
      Darwin                8   3322 2112
      Townsville            9   3322 3124
      Learmonth            11   4322 3123
      Canberra             12   3333 3123
      Hobart               11   3333 3113
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 JAN : 
      Darwin                2   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                4   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1000 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jan    17    active 
05 Jan    12    Unsettled 
06 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests active periods can be expected 4 
Jan. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions, local night hours 
at high latitudes 4 Jan. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
03 Jan   164

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jan   160    Near predicted monthly values 
05 Jan   160    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Jan   160    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF comms quality expected local 
night hours tonight, southern region AUs/NZ only. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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