[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 February 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z FEBRUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 131/85

GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Feb             01 Mar             02 Mar
Activity     Low                Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             135/89
COMMENT: Coronal holes are visible in the north-east and south-west 
quadrant of the solar disk. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated southward 00-10UT. Solar 
wind speed peaked at around 420km/sec near 04UT then declined, 
probably in association with coronal hole now in south-west quadrant. 
A small filament disappeared from near the centre of solar disk. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 27 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       13   4333 3212
      Darwin               12   4332 3201
      Townsville           12   4323 3212
      Learmonth            17   5333 3222
      Canberra             12   3333 3212
      Hobart               13   3433 3211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 FEB : 
      Darwin                2   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra              2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               12   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10   2032 2433     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Feb    16    Unsettled to active 
01 Mar    12    Unsettled 
02 Mar     2    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mild coronal hole associated activity observed 27 Feb. 
Possible glancing blow from the recent CME may mildly effect 
geomagnetic activity second half of 28 Feb. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
01 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mild proton enhancement which begin second half of UT 
day on 26 Feb, returned to nominal levels early in UT day 27 
Feb. Further mild degradation in HF conditions expected local 
night hours 28 Feb. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
27 Feb   132

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February: 116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Feb   130    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 
01 Mar   110    near predicted monthly values 
02 Mar   140    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: No mild depressions were observed after local dawn this 
morning following mild coronal hole induced geomagnetic acvtivity. 
There is a chance for mildly disturbed contions on 28 Feb, which 
may cause a mild depression on 01 Mar. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060