[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 February 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z FEBRUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb: 135/89

GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Feb             27 Feb             28 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             135/89

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region        1   1110 0011
      Darwin                1   1110 0012
      Townsville            1   1100 0012
      Learmonth             5   3111 1122
      Canberra              0   1000 0010
      Hobart                2   1111 1010
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 FEB : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               14   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1202 2310     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Feb     7    Quiet 
27 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active 
28 Feb    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggets mild increase in geomagnetic activity 
27 Feb. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
25 Feb   154

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Feb   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
27 Feb   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
28 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values 


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