[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 February 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z FEBRUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 141/95

GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Feb             15 Feb             16 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             145/99

COMMENT: A possible weak shock signature was observed around 
0336UT. Following this possible small shock solar wind speed 
then gradually rose to around 650km/sec, and Bz fluctuated southward 
to -15nT, 04-05UT. Bz fluctuated mildly southward again 11-24UT. 
Solar wind speed now mildly elevated at around 500km/sec. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 13 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       18   3433 3343
      Darwin               17   4432 3333
      Townsville           16   3433 3334
      Learmonth            20   4432 4343
      Canberra             21   3533 3344
      Hobart               23   3543 3343
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 FEB : 
      Darwin                2   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             16   (Quiet)
      Hobart               51   (Unsettled)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1020 1222     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Feb    17    active 
15 Feb    17    active 
16 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Active periods expected 14-15 feb due to recent CME 
activity 11-12Feb. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
15 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: High latitudes degraded by mild geomagentic activity. 
Further degradations expected over next two days, particularly 
local night hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
13 Feb   142

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Feb    90    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
15 Feb    90    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
16 Feb   100    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 13 February 
and is current for interval 14-15 February. Southern region MUFs 
depressed 15-20% after local dawn at some sites, following mild 
overnite geomagentic activity. Mildly degraded HF conditions 
expected local night hours 14-15 Feb, southern region Aus/NZ. 
There is a chance for further mild depressions after local dawn 
after 14-15 Feb. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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