[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 February 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z FEBRUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 162/116

GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Feb             11 Feb             12 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            165/119

COMMENT: There has been an increase in minor solar radio events 
over past 24 hours. A solar region just south of the centre of 
the solar disk is becoming active. An increase in solar flare 
activity may occur over the next few days if this region continues 
to develop. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region        6   2222 2122
      Darwin                4   2111 2123
      Townsville            5   2212 2113
      Learmonth            13   3--3 32--
      Canberra              5   2122 2122
      Hobart                7   2222 3111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 FEB : 
      Darwin                2   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              8   (Quiet)
      Hobart               20   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1223 0223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Feb     7    Quiet 
12 Feb     6    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
09 Feb   148

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Feb   140    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Feb   140    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Feb   140    Near predicted monthly values 


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