[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 February 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z FEBRUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 161/115

GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Feb             03 Feb             04 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            170/124


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region        6   2222 2123
      Darwin                7   2322 2123
      Townsville            7   2222 2-24
      Learmonth             7   2222 2224
      Canberra              6   2222 2123
      Hobart                7   2232 2113
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 FEB : 
      Darwin                2   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               16   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             18   0045 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Feb    10    Quiet to unsettled 
03 Feb     8    Quiet to unsettled 
04 Feb     6    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has declined following the impact 
of the CME on 31 January and is expected to be mostly quiet to 
unsettled for the next few days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Fair-poor      Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions may become degraded for low lats for 2 
Feb. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
01 Feb    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15-30% at times, otherwise mostly
      near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Feb   110    Depressed 10-20% at times for northern Australian 
                regions, otherwise near predicted monthly values. 
03 Feb   125    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Feb   125    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions may become degraded for northern Australian 
regions for 2 Feb. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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