[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 December 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X3.4    2045UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American
 M4/SF    0351UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 263/214

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Dec             30 Dec             31 Dec
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   260/210            255/205            255/205
COMMENT: The solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9727 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 29 Dec. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 28 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2333 3223
      Darwin              12   1333 3234
      Learmonth           10   2233 3224
      Canberra             9   1233 3223
      Hobart               7   1232 3113
      Casey(Ant)          18   3453 3123
      Davis(Ant)          12   3333 3212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 DEC : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart              30   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              6   2112 2331     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Dec    30    Active to Minor storm 
30 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
31 Dec     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 50 was issued on 27 December 
and is current for interval 28-29 December. Because of the 26 
Dec. CME event, magnetic field is expected to be affected from 
late 28 to 29 Dec.. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Poor-normal    
PCA Event : Began at 0610UT 26/12, Ended at 0710UT 28/12
 and, Began at 0935UT 28/12, Ended at 1030UT 28/12
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Dec      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: As 26 Dec. CME will touch the earth from late 28 Dec., 
the HF propagation is expected to be affected then. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
28 Dec   166

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 112

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Dec    78    about 10% below predicted monthly values 
30 Dec   130    near predicted monthly values 
31 Dec   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 86 was issued on 28 December 
and is current for interval 29 December only. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.8E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C3.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 373 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    56300 K  Bz:   4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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