[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 December 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M7.6    0544UT  probable   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M2.0    1226UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.3    1721UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.3    2115UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec: 268/219

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Dec             28 Dec             29 Dec
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   265/216            260/210            255/205
COMMENT: 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3222 2222
      Darwin               6   2222 1223
      Learmonth            7   3212 1222
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart               4   2221 0212
      Casey(Ant)          14   4--- 3223
      Davis(Ant)          13   33-3 3232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 DEC : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              74   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary              8   3213 2213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
29 Dec    20    active 
COMMENT: 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 26 12 2001 0610UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: PCA is in progress. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
26 Dec   130

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 112

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Dec   160    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
28 Dec   160    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
29 Dec   100    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 461 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:   131000 K  Bz:   3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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