[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 December 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec: 212/163

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Dec             20 Dec             21 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            200/152            195/147
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. 
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
18/0510UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9715 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 20 Dec. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 18 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   3232 2222
      Darwin               7   2222 2223
      Learmonth            7   -222 2223
      Canberra             7   2232 2122
      Hobart               9   2233 2221
      Casey(Ant)          12   --43 2223
      Davis(Ant)          22   44-- 4-22
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 DEC : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             15   2334 4432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
18 Dec   136

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Dec   140    near predicted monthly values 
20 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Dec   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Dec
Speed: 479 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:   154000 K  Bz:  -7 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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