[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 December 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec: 226/176

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Dec             09 Dec             10 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   225/175            220/170            210/161

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3321 3322
      Darwin               9   3211 3323
      Learmonth            7   3211 2312
      Canberra            11   2-32 3322
      Hobart              10   3311 3323
      Casey(Ant)          16   4--- 32--
      Davis(Ant)          21   34-- 4-32
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 DEC : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart              55   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              8   2113 2333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
07 Dec   130

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Dec   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
09 Dec   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
10 Dec   120    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 434 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:   108000 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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