[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 August 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/2N    1757UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
 M3/SF    2038UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 199/151

GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Aug             01 Sep             02 Sep
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            210/161            210/161



A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1329UT 
on 30 Aug. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 30 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2112 3432
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville           3   1011 1222
      Learmonth           11   2122 3432
      Canberra            15   3--2 3433
      Hobart              11   1212 3432
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 AUG : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra           109   (Major storm)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9   2233 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Sep    20    active 
02 Sep    20    active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be active 1-2 Sep 
due to recurrent coronal hole activity. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
02 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
30 Aug   113

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Aug   120    near predicted monthly values 
01 Sep   111    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
02 Sep   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressed conditions are expected on 1 Sep due to geomagnetic 
activity. 

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