[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 August 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    0913UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 175/129

GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Aug             26 Aug             27 Aug
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            190/143            200/152
COMMENT: A solar region in the south-east quadrant of the solar 
disk has potential for significant flare activity, but has only 
produced low level M class activity so far. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1211 1001
      Darwin               2   1211 1002
      Townsville           0   0000 0001
      Learmonth            2   1211 1001
      Canberra             2   1211 1001
      Hobart               1   0201 0000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 AUG : 
      Darwin              14   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             12   3242 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Aug    11    Unsettled 
27 Aug    18    active 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests mild increase in activity on 27-28 Aug. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation may be experieneced 27-28 Aug. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
24 Aug   113

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 35% during local day,
     Enhanced by 60% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 60% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Aug   115    Near predicted monthly values 
26 Aug   115    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Aug   115    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation may be experieneced 27-28 Aug. 
Fadeouts likely over next few days.


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