[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 August 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.5    2158UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug: 160/114

GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.9E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+04 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Aug             23 Aug             24 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            170/124            175/129

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   1213 1322
      Darwin              11   2323 2333
      Townsville           3   0102 0222
      Learmonth            9   2223 13--
      Canberra             7   2212 1322
      Hobart               7   1213 1322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 AUG : 
      Darwin              15   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            44   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              30   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10   2113 3332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Aug    12    Unsettled 
23 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: The propagation condition is expected to be normal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
21 Aug   120

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Aug   100    Near predicted monthly values 
23 Aug   110    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Aug   102    Near predicted monthly values 

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