[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 August 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 167/121

GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Aug             10 Aug             11 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            155/109            150/105

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1112 1112
      Darwin               3   1112 1012
      Townsville           1   0111 0001
      Learmonth            8   2222 2323
      Canberra             3   1012 1112
      Hobart               4   1013 1110
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 AUG : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              30   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             13   3323 3333     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
08 Aug   102

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Aug   110    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Aug   110    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Aug   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 7 August 
and is current for interval 7-9 August (SWFs) . 

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